Saturday, February 11, 2006
Decision Tree
Let us consider a simple decision tree representing the possible paths that negotiations or a strike could take. At the beginning (where we are now) , there are two options: a positive strike authorization or a negative strike authorization. If there is a positive strike authorization, there are two more options: to actually strike or not. Beyond that, there are numerous options about what form a strike might take. Throughout the entire process, there is the option of settling with the administration, and there is also the option that the administration will bring more money to the table in the form of a better offer.
It's clear from the administration's actions and words that if we stay where we are (no positive strike authorization) there will be no more money. We have been negotiating since the summer, and all proposals from the administration have involved basically the same, fixed amount of money (see "Same Old Pig"). No amount of additional negotiation or compromise on the part of the union is going to change that.
Suppose there was a positive strike authorization. Would that bring more money to the table? It might or it might not. Only the administration knows, and they might not even know yet. Given their lack of planning throughout this entire process, it wouldn't be surprising if they have not planned for this contingency yet.
Suppose we went on strike. Would there be more money on the table? Again, maybe yes, maybe no.
So, we are at the first fork in the road. If we choose to reject a strike authorization, we can be very certain that there will be no more money. If we approve a strike authorization and continue down the other path, there might be more money or there might not. However, we know there's no additional money without a positive strike authorization.
It's clear from the administration's actions and words that if we stay where we are (no positive strike authorization) there will be no more money. We have been negotiating since the summer, and all proposals from the administration have involved basically the same, fixed amount of money (see "Same Old Pig"). No amount of additional negotiation or compromise on the part of the union is going to change that.
Suppose there was a positive strike authorization. Would that bring more money to the table? It might or it might not. Only the administration knows, and they might not even know yet. Given their lack of planning throughout this entire process, it wouldn't be surprising if they have not planned for this contingency yet.
Suppose we went on strike. Would there be more money on the table? Again, maybe yes, maybe no.
So, we are at the first fork in the road. If we choose to reject a strike authorization, we can be very certain that there will be no more money. If we approve a strike authorization and continue down the other path, there might be more money or there might not. However, we know there's no additional money without a positive strike authorization.
# posted by Charles Anderson @ 4:58 PM 
